Markets Update 29 July 2025
Global Market Outlook
The Strengthening Dollar The dollar index (DXY) is expected to continue strengthening against the Euro. The index is approaching a key technical level of 100; a decisive move above this could signal a period of significant dollar strength and Euro weakness. This trend is supported by clearing uncertainties around trade and the implementation of the U.S. Genius Act for stablecoins. This legislation is seen as “genius” because it increases demand for U.S. dollars by having stablecoin issuers invest customer funds into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby reinforcing the dollar’s reserve currency status.
This currency dynamic will likely create an environment where companies with Euro-based costs and dollar-denominated sales will benefit, while those with dollar costs and Euro sales may face headwinds.
U.S. Stock Indices (S&P 500 & Nasdaq)
The outlook for U.S. stock indices is positive, with a preference for the Nasdaq. S&P 500: The index has reached its 6,400 target. The next target is 7,300. Nasdaq: Continues to show a strong upward trend, with the next target set at 26,695. While the long-term outlook (beyond three months) is very positive, investors should prepare for high volatility in the coming months (August-October).
The American stock market is described as a mechanism that transfers wealth from impatient to patient investors. It is advised to remain calm during this period, view any price drops as buying opportunities, and invest gradually rather than all at once.
Cryptocurrencies
The analysis is positive for cryptocurrencies, supported by global liquidity and a strengthening dollar, as they are primarily valued in USD.
Bitcoin (BTC): After a potential period of sideways movement, an uptrend is expected. A strategy of making regular weekly investments is suggested to build a position over time.
Ethereum (ETH): A weekly purchase strategy is also recommended. Key levels to watch are supports at $3,800 and $3,500, with the first resistance at $4,014. For those who have already invested half their intended amount, it is advised to wait.
Ripple (XRP): The outlook is favourable. Due to its recent rapid increase, a staged buying approach is recommended to manage potential consolidation. Investors might consider making an initial purchase and then waiting a week before adding to the position.
Precious Metals
The analysis for precious metals is mixed, with a clear preference for silver over gold at present. Silver: Referred to as the “devil’s metal” due to its volatility, silver has reached its target of $38.74. The current sideways price action is viewed as a good buying opportunity. A sudden, sharp, and surprising price move is anticipated for later in the week.
Gold: The price remains below the previously identified sell level of $3,330. A minor recovery to around $3,350 might occur, followed by one last sell-off designed to frustrate investors. A good entry point for new purchases might present itself if the price falls to the $3,250 level. However, investors should be aware that a rising dollar index acts as a headwind for gold. For those who exclusively want to invest in gold, the recommendation is to wait for this potential price drop before buying.
