Here you will find the latest predictions and technical analysis about the USD/TRY pair by local experts. You will find long term forecasts as well as short term opinions. The commentaries presented here are in descending order with the latest being on the top.
USD TRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Commentary and Analysis on 04.05.2018
Serkan İşlek, Research Expert – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
After the bad inflation yesterday, the CBRT said: The increase in energy inflation is likely to continue in the short term, while the rise in energy and core goods is said to be effective. As the election calendar progresses on the domestic side, political tension rises, geopolitical developments and international economic developments are followed. One of the reasons for the speculation is that the debt crisis may explode in emerging countries after the recent deterioration in the Argentine economy.
While significant economic data are not disclosed on the domestic side, Non-Farm Employment, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. While Non-Farm Employment remained below expectations with 164 thousand, it was seen that the data of the last month was revised upwards. Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.1 percent while expectations for March were revised downward. The unemployment rate tested at 3.9 percent in December 2000. While the rest of the day will be followed by disclosures of some FOMC members in the US, systematic risk elements will continue to be monitored at home.
If we look technically; the Exchange rate seems to be close to the level of 4.26. It is no longer necessary to say support-resilience in these levels as prices, news flows and economic realities are the source. However, in the case of upward movements, the regions corresponding to the formation or the upper channels of the channel are resisted, while in the downward direction, the regions corresponding to the trend lines are supported with eyes.
Eda Karadağ, Research Expert – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
There is negative dissociation on TL assets.
Since the morning hours, the TL is depreciating against the major currencies, and the record level in the USD / TL exchange rate is making the markets uneasy. In fact, we can say that there is no recent data or news-based action. In 2018, unexpected rating cuts from international credit rating agencies, an increase in inflation figures, a deterioration in the current account deficit and an early election process are causing the fragility of TL assets to continue. Deterioration in risk perception towards Turkey has already begun. Turkey’s 5-year CDS figure of 228 points with Turkey held on April 16, 2017 which draws attention to the levels rise during the referendum. We can say that there is a serious increase in this movement in the CDS chart and that it put pressure on the TL. In short, the fragility of TL assets may be expected to continue for a while longer unless we receive news flows that will relieve the TL.
The figures for non-farm employment and hourly earnings released from the US were followed today. The data set disclosed does not seem to cause any serious volatility on the dollar. In particular, the Fed’s recent forecasts that it will not make any changes to its language will not open a new page on pricing. We also observe that in the foreign market, the Dollar index is above the 92.00 level and this situation is disturbing the developing country markets.
In emerging market markets, the most negative non-TL currency is the Argentine Pezosu.Argentina’s risk premium is also higher than the current political uncertainty in Turkey and there. In the face of this picture, Argentina’s central bank has increased the country’s policy rate by 600 BP since April 27th. But there is still a very positive picture on the Argentinean Pezosu. Obviously, if we think that this movement in Argentina and the aggressive attitude of the Central Bank of Argentina disturbs the GOPs, we can interpret the TL as a negative diminution indirectly from the frustration in this sector.
In short, the external market outside Turkey, especially in developing countries could be a new story about the limited impact on the TL is useful to think about. Therefore, in TL, sensitivity is still high and it is good to be cautious about possible record levels.
USD / TRY Technical Analysis: The USD / TL exchange rate has aggressively regained its record today and its latest record is at 4.29. You can watch this level as a resistance point, and rising on this level requires you to be cautious about possible new record attempts. It is worth noting that the correction will come after the new record tests.Nowadays, we are on level 4.25 and as long as you stay on this level, you can continue to keep your upward tendency. In the first place, we need to see 4.20 below and 4.15 below to see that the coach is relieved.
Supports: 4.25 / 4.2145 / 4.20 Resistanace: 4.29
Ziraat Invest – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
The market is in a wait-and-see mode prior to the April Employment Report, which is an important data day and will be announced in the US at 15:30 GMT. While non-agricultural employment is expected to increase by 192,000 people (previous 103bin), the expectation of unemployment rate is 4.0% (previous 4.1%). On the other hand, there will still be hourly wages. Expectations for wages are 0.2% per month (previous 0.3%), 2.7% per annum (previous 2.7%). Emerging Country currencies, under pressure from a supply near or below expectations, may be somewhat relieved. Otherwise, expectations for a strong rate of interest on FED may increase and the pressure on currencies may become more pronounced. In an environment where global growth is favored by the US, the EURUSD is below the 200-day average.
The strengthening of the Dollar on a global scale also negatively affects especially the Developing Country assets. On the other hand, yesterday, domestic inflation expectation on the arrival of Lira on pressure. Dollar / TL rises to 4,2450 yesterday. The closing is at 4.2130, while the pressure on the GOU exchange rates before the data in the US after the lunch is ongoing. TL is depreciating by 0.7% on a basket basis (1 USD 1 EUR averages).When we look at the technical level, 4.2930 over 4,2550 resistance may be the target.The main resistance is around 4.3150. On the other hand, support for 4,2250 and 4,19 may be followed in possible decreases.
Anadolu Invest – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
growing concerns about the economy after the populist policies in the early pre-election, the S & P Turkey’s credit to lower grades as a surprise, then inflation in April came above expectations led 4.24 to be seen yesterday USDTRY. It’s over 4.23 this morning. The deterioration in medium-term economic expectations continues to be a risk for TRY. In this respect, the effect of short-term measures of the fire in the exchange rate policy is simply too short. Financial policies that are loosened before the early elections continue to suppress TRY. Technically, we would like to express that the movement on 4.20 is risky for TRY. In TRY, technically, revaluation should go below the previous peak of 4.1940.
| Last Price | : | 4.2311 |
| supports | : | 4,2100-4,1940-4,1800 |
| Resistances | : | 4,2400-4,2500-4,2600 |
Sevgül Yırtar Düzdün, Strategist – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
The historic record level in USD / TRY was moved to 4,2448 yesterday’s trading. The continuing high trend of the dollar index (DXY) continues to create pressure on emerging market currencies (GOP) and TL assets. DXY, which strengthened its movement over long-term declining channel top band (91,500), was the highest yesterday with 92,724.On the domestic side, the inflation rate on expectations of April inflation increased the upward movement in Dollar / TL exchange rate. Inflation was announced on expectations of 1.87% to 1.50% in April. In April, annual inflation rose to 10.85% and core inflation to 12.24% year on year. Unemployment claims, which were announced yesterday in the US, came under expectations and pointed out that the recovery in the labor market is ongoing. At global markets, the US non-farm employment and unemployment rate will be monitored today. The non-agricultural employment data to be announced today in the US is expected to rise in April, compared to the previous month, and the unemployment rate to drop to 4%.
Technically, activity in the upward direction in the last three trading days continues in Dollar / TL exchange rate. New record levels can be seen due to the ongoing 5-22 day AO’s and their return to motion within the ascending channel. The above 4,25- 4,28 levels can be tested as long as they move above 4,1940 in the wake.
| Last | Support-1 | Support-2 | Support-3 | Resistance-1 | Resistance-2 | Resistance-3 | |
| USDTRY | 4.2336 | 4,194 | 4.18 | 4.15 | 4.25 | 4.28 | 4.32 |
Deniz Yatırım – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
USDTRY renewed its peak while USD / USD was harsh sales in the Turkish Lira after the inflation data which was expected yesterday. Technical indicators have come to the overbought territory. Rising at 4.1935 level, which we gave as a resistance point yesterday, and the April summit peaked yesterday, the rises were close to resistance at 4.2500 psychological level. If sales pressure is seen, 4.1935 level is the support point of 4.1126, which was the summit of April 17th, and 4.1122, which is the summit of the previous week.
SUPPORT: 4.1935 – 4.1500 – 4.1266 RESISTANCE: 4.2500 – 4.2750 – 4.3000
Serkan Uludag, Analyst – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
USDTRY continues to stay up trend. Higher incoming TÜFE data and 4,20 n won exceeded the new records yesterday. For this reason, the continuation of the trend over the medium term resistance point of 4,13 days can be expected. Targets are 4,2583 and 4,2923. But if 4,12 is downgraded, 4,0922 and 4,0560 supports may reach the target position. It is expected that this upward movement should be digested to make a short-term analysis during the day. (Mexico Investment)
Sugar Investment – USDTRY Comment on USDTRY Comment
Yesterday, the USD / TRY rate broke the new historical record with 4.2442 as the inflation we followed in the domestic market maintained its double-downtrend and came on expectations. Kur completed the daily closure on 4.21. The dollar / TL exchange rate, which has been appreciating since the beginning of the week due to the appreciation of the dollar against the international markets and the fragility of the Turkish lira, broke a new record yesterday at 4.24 above the inflation rate announced at home. If it stays above 4.22, it can be targeted at 4.2858 level. In the pricing below 4.22, support of 4.1484 and 4.0740 can be followed
Ekin Akbaş, Research Director – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
According to the data released by the Turkstat yesterday morning, the April CPI increase was 1.87%. The market expectation was 1.5% and our institutional estimate was 1.6%. The annual increase in inflation has increased from 10.23% to 10.85% in this framework. After the inflation data on expectations, the sales pressure of Turkish lira accelerated and the USDTRY parity reached record high levels. Following the note discount from the S & P, the perception of TL assets was already weak. On top of this, a high inflation rate was added to accelerate the sales in TL and the exchange rate broke new record by exceeding 4.24 yesterday. It is observed that the Kurdish course has a fluctuating course around 4.23 as of this morning hours. The current market closure will be very important in terms of short term outlook. If Kurun’s current closure is to be made on the 4.18 level, which corresponds to the medium-term ascension channel border, the upside will be broken upwards.
In this case, it may be expected that after the official break of the channel, the build will continue its upward movement next week and set the band 4,18 – 4,30 as the new movement area. However, if the current close (ie weekly close) is below the 4.18 level, the bull may be expected to retreat to the 4,10 – 4,13 levels with a technical correction in the upcoming period. Therefore, in terms of the short term outlook of the exchange rate, the current market closing will be very decisive.
Today we will closely monitor the employment data coming from the US at noon. The USDTRY, which is trading at 4.2293 as of this morning, has not reached a record high level of resistance, which could limit upward movements due to record levels close to record levels.
Oyak Investment – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
The level of support at 4.1969 USDTRY … Credit rating agency S & P Turkey’s credit rating to download and emerging market currencies in the TL with the effect of inflation data came in above expectations decomposition takes negative direction. On the 4.1960 support level, the weak appearance will be maintained, and if this support level is broken, it can be viewed as 4.15 support level.
Özgecan Özdemir, Research Expert – USDTRY, US Dollar Turkish Lira Forecast and Analysis
It was observed that the CPI data announced by TURKSTAT in Turkey showed an increase of 1.87 percent in monthly basis and 10.85 percent in annual basis on the market expectation, leading to partial loss of value in TL and upward movement in the waza. During the day, although the dollar weakened in global markets, TL depreciated on a basket basis supported the upturn in the currency.Today, the TDI data to be released in the US will be closely monitored.
When we look at the technique, we can see the continuation of upwards movements if we maintain persistence over the intermediate support level of 4.2000. A further resistance level of 4.2370, 4.2450 and 4.2500 can be followed in the ascension. Possible retreats can be watched with support levels of 4,2000, 4,1870 and 4,1630. (Ahlatcı Investment)
Risk Warning:
Dollar estimates and dollar rate estimates given here are by experts and brokerage firms, not by Kanal Finans. While one expert may think that the US Dollar is going to gain value against Turkish Lira another may think the exact opposite. This is natural and an expected behavior. It should not be interpreted as a contradiction on behalf of Kanal Finans. Due to recent events an expert may change his or her opinion and the newest opinion will be presented on this page.
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