İŞ INVESTMENT – Aygaz Company Update – 12.08.2016
Aygaz Price (TL) : 11.97 – T.P.(TL) : 12.91 – Mcap.mn.(TL) : 3591 – 3M ADV(mn$) : 1.38
AYGAZ TI Equity- Rec.:OUTPERFORM Upside%: 7.87 Analyst: [email protected]
AYGAZ 2Q16 Earnings Review: Operationally worse than market call
Aygaz posted a net profit of TL93mn in its 2Q16 financials (-13% YoY), in line with our estimate of TL93mn and the market consensus of TL96mn. The YoY deterioration at the bottom-line stemmed from the lower contribution of equity accounted subsidiaries despite the YoY improvement in operational profitability. The profit from equity accounted subsidiaries has been decreased to TL36mn in 2Q16 from TL67mn in 2Q15 due to the YoY deterioration in the operational performance of Tupras, dragging down the contribution from Enerji Yatırımları A.S. Revenues increased by a mere 1% YoY in 2Q16 to TL1.5bn (IS Investment: TL1.7bn, consensus: TL2bn) in-line with the rise in domestic volumes, where as international and wholesale volumes decreased by 2%. The Company posted and EBITDA of TL97mn (+27% YoY), perfectly in line with our estimate yet much lower than consensus call of TL116mn. The YoY improvement in EBITDA is attributable to the positive contribution of LPG and Natural gas business. All in all we may see a negative market reaction to the results as both topline and operational profit are missed the consensus estimates by wide margins.